我国这几年的人口增长已经很低了,而隔壁日本和韩国更低,甚至人口开始负增长了。随着经济的发展,人口增长减速是很正常的事情。即便是现在我们觉得人口增长速度很快的印度,实际上近些年人口增长率也大大降低了。而更贫穷的非洲地区已经成为地球人口增长最快速的地区。
但是根据联合国的一项统计数据显示,到2084年的时候,地球人类将会迎来一个大拐点。60年后的时候,地球每年的出生人口将会小于死亡人口,整个地球上的人口开始减少。
下面的表格中我们将会统计从1950年到2100年这151年时间里全球人口的变化数据情况:
年份 | 出生人口 | 死亡人口 | 人口增长/减少 |
---|---|---|---|
1950 | 91,824,000 | 48,487,000 | 43,337,000 |
1951 | 92,507,000 | 48,176,000 | 44,331,000 |
1952 | 97,371,000 | 47,383,000 | 49,988,000 |
1953 | 97,291,000 | 47,240,000 | 50,051,000 |
1954 | 100,188,000 | 46,662,000 | 53,526,000 |
1955 | 101,748,000 | 46,636,000 | 55,112,000 |
1956 | 101,759,000 | 46,479,000 | 55,280,000 |
1957 | 106,018,000 | 46,881,000 | 59,137,000 |
1958 | 104,644,000 | 46,518,000 | 58,126,000 |
1959 | 102,000,000 | 50,725,000 | 51,275,000 |
1960 | 102,378,000 | 54,612,000 | 47,766,000 |
1961 | 100,951,000 | 49,919,000 | 51,032,000 |
1962 | 112,039,000 | 46,061,000 | 65,978,000 |
1963 | 119,803,000 | 46,913,000 | 72,890,000 |
1964 | 117,292,000 | 46,823,000 | 70,469,000 |
1965 | 117,837,000 | 48,214,000 | 69,623,000 |
1966 | 117,233,000 | 47,842,000 | 69,391,000 |
1967 | 116,920,000 | 47,569,000 | 69,351,000 |
1968 | 121,826,000 | 47,629,000 | 74,197,000 |
1969 | 122,228,000 | 47,816,000 | 74,412,000 |
1970 | 124,136,000 | 48,163,000 | 75,973,000 |
1971 | 123,740,000 | 49,384,000 | 74,356,000 |
1972 | 123,554,000 | 47,770,000 | 75,784,000 |
1973 | 123,564,000 | 47,573,000 | 75,991,000 |
1974 | 122,709,000 | 47,478,000 | 75,231,000 |
1975 | 121,030,000 | 47,623,000 | 73,407,000 |
1976 | 121,322,000 | 47,707,000 | 73,615,000 |
1977 | 120,787,000 | 47,167,000 | 73,620,000 |
1978 | 122,141,000 | 47,293,000 | 74,848,000 |
1979 | 125,000,000 | 46,964,000 | 78,036,000 |
1980 | 127,447,000 | 47,350,000 | 80,097,000 |
1981 | 129,716,000 | 47,471,000 | 82,245,000 |
1982 | 133,207,000 | 47,659,000 | 85,548,000 |
1983 | 131,968,000 | 48,207,000 | 83,761,000 |
1984 | 134,365,000 | 48,431,000 | 85,934,000 |
1985 | 136,374,000 | 48,773,000 | 87,601,000 |
1986 | 139,301,000 | 48,644,000 | 90,657,000 |
1987 | 141,347,000 | 48,657,000 | 92,690,000 |
1988 | 140,986,000 | 49,183,000 | 91,803,000 |
1989 | 142,249,000 | 49,178,000 | 93,071,000 |
1990 | 143,461,000 | 49,794,000 | 93,667,000 |
1991 | 138,307,000 | 50,108,000 | 88,199,000 |
1992 | 136,591,000 | 50,282,000 | 86,309,000 |
1993 | 135,632,000 | 50,832,000 | 84,800,000 |
1994 | 135,143,000 | 51,931,000 | 83,212,000 |
1995 | 134,850,000 | 51,407,000 | 83,443,000 |
1996 | 134,321,000 | 51,411,000 | 82,910,000 |
1997 | 133,986,000 | 51,432,000 | 82,554,000 |
1998 | 133,858,000 | 51,854,000 | 82,004,000 |
1999 | 134,059,000 | 52,184,000 | 81,875,000 |
2000 | 135,758,000 | 52,240,000 | 83,518,000 |
2001 | 135,380,000 | 52,431,000 | 82,949,000 |
2002 | 135,396,000 | 52,758,000 | 82,638,000 |
2003 | 135,701,000 | 53,077,000 | 82,624,000 |
2004 | 136,596,000 | 53,188,000 | 83,408,000 |
2005 | 137,166,000 | 53,390,000 | 83,776,000 |
2006 | 138,469,000 | 53,282,000 | 85,187,000 |
2007 | 139,936,000 | 53,410,000 | 86,526,000 |
2008 | 141,759,000 | 53,987,000 | 87,772,000 |
2009 | 142,968,000 | 54,123,000 | 88,845,000 |
2010 | 143,354,000 | 54,269,000 | 89,085,000 |
2011 | 143,879,000 | 54,581,000 | 89,298,000 |
2012 | 146,055,000 | 54,795,000 | 91,260,000 |
2013 | 145,015,000 | 55,093,000 | 89,922,000 |
2014 | 145,268,000 | 55,545,000 | 89,723,000 |
2015 | 144,334,000 | 56,306,000 | 88,028,000 |
2016 | 144,854,000 | 56,757,000 | 88,097,000 |
2017 | 143,602,000 | 57,572,000 | 86,030,000 |
2018 | 140,333,000 | 57,793,000 | 82,540,000 |
2019 | 138,597,000 | 58,355,000 | 80,242,000 |
2020 | 134,720,000 | 63,546,000 | 71,174,000 |
2021 | 133,449,000 | 69,728,000 | 63,721,000 |
2022 | 132,475,000 | 62,279,000 | 70,196,000 |
2023 | 132,110,000 | 61,652,000 | 70,458,000 |
2024 | 132,406,000 | 62,389,000 | 70,017,000 |
2025 | 132,399,000 | 63,136,000 | 69,263,000 |
2026 | 132,503,000 | 63,637,000 | 68,866,000 |
2027 | 132,591,000 | 64,626,000 | 67,965,000 |
2028 | 132,761,000 | 65,678,000 | 67,083,000 |
2029 | 132,989,000 | 66,739,000 | 66,250,000 |
2030 | 133,256,000 | 67,827,000 | 65,429,000 |
2031 | 133,513,000 | 68,954,000 | 64,559,000 |
2032 | 133,765,000 | 70,103,000 | 63,662,000 |
2033 | 134,065,000 | 71,289,000 | 62,776,000 |
2034 | 134,381,000 | 72,486,000 | 61,895,000 |
2035 | 134,669,000 | 73,714,000 | 60,955,000 |
2036 | 134,946,000 | 74,948,000 | 59,998,000 |
2037 | 135,141,000 | 76,206,000 | 58,935,000 |
2038 | 135,355,000 | 77,450,000 | 57,905,000 |
2039 | 135,515,000 | 78,710,000 | 56,805,000 |
2040 | 135,669,000 | 79,951,000 | 55,718,000 |
2041 | 135,673,000 | 81,209,000 | 54,464,000 |
2042 | 135,636,000 | 82,443,000 | 53,193,000 |
2043 | 135,581,000 | 83,672,000 | 51,909,000 |
2044 | 135,407,000 | 84,890,000 | 50,517,000 |
2045 | 135,109,000 | 86,093,000 | 49,016,000 |
2046 | 134,764,000 | 87,282,000 | 47,482,000 |
2047 | 134,271,000 | 88,448,000 | 45,823,000 |
2048 | 133,752,000 | 89,607,000 | 44,145,000 |
2049 | 133,163,000 | 90,746,000 | 42,417,000 |
2050 | 132,555,000 | 91,877,000 | 40,678,000 |
2051 | 131,923,000 | 92,986,000 | 38,937,000 |
2052 | 131,280,000 | 94,084,000 | 37,196,000 |
2053 | 130,667,000 | 95,173,000 | 35,494,000 |
2054 | 130,020,000 | 96,249,000 | 33,771,000 |
2055 | 129,485,000 | 97,293,000 | 32,192,000 |
2056 | 128,995,000 | 98,309,000 | 30,686,000 |
2057 | 128,531,000 | 99,310,000 | 29,221,000 |
2058 | 128,110,000 | 100,283,000 | 27,827,000 |
2059 | 127,755,000 | 101,242,000 | 26,513,000 |
2060 | 127,431,000 | 102,157,000 | 25,274,000 |
2061 | 127,117,000 | 103,025,000 | 24,092,000 |
2062 | 126,876,000 | 103,870,000 | 23,006,000 |
2063 | 126,635,000 | 104,678,000 | 21,957,000 |
2064 | 126,430,000 | 105,485,000 | 20,945,000 |
2065 | 126,218,000 | 106,273,000 | 19,945,000 |
2066 | 126,019,000 | 107,032,000 | 18,987,000 |
2067 | 125,793,000 | 107,799,000 | 17,994,000 |
2068 | 125,547,000 | 108,554,000 | 16,993,000 |
2069 | 125,260,000 | 109,292,000 | 15,968,000 |
2070 | 124,986,000 | 110,035,000 | 14,951,000 |
2071 | 124,696,000 | 110,770,000 | 13,926,000 |
2072 | 124,348,000 | 111,529,000 | 12,819,000 |
2073 | 123,982,000 | 112,258,000 | 11,724,000 |
2074 | 123,573,000 | 112,984,000 | 10,589,000 |
2075 | 123,140,000 | 113,707,000 | 9,433,000 |
2076 | 122,693,000 | 114,417,000 | 8,276,000 |
2077 | 122,209,000 | 115,099,000 | 7,110,000 |
2078 | 121,660,000 | 115,749,000 | 5,911,000 |
2079 | 121,107,000 | 116,357,000 | 4,750,000 |
2080 | 120,555,000 | 116,924,000 | 3,631,000 |
2081 | 119,955,000 | 117,418,000 | 2,537,000 |
2082 | 119,412,000 | 117,862,000 | 1,550,000 |
2083 | 118,804,000 | 118,270,000 | 534,000 |
2084 | 118,220,000 | 118,619,000 | -399,000 |
2085 | 117,622,000 | 118,941,000 | -1,319,000 |
2086 | 117,028,000 | 119,206,000 | -2,178,000 |
2087 | 116,442,000 | 119,458,000 | -3,016,000 |
2088 | 115,886,000 | 119,684,000 | -3,798,000 |
2089 | 115,345,000 | 119,920,000 | -4,575,000 |
2090 | 114,805,000 | 120,136,000 | -5,331,000 |
2091 | 114,283,000 | 120,359,000 | -6,076,000 |
2092 | 113,773,000 | 120,604,000 | -6,831,000 |
2093 | 113,262,000 | 120,878,000 | -7,616,000 |
2094 | 112,773,000 | 121,154,000 | -8,381,000 |
2095 | 112,282,000 | 121,465,000 | -9,183,000 |
2096 | 111,831,000 | 121,754,000 | -9,923,000 |
2097 | 111,397,000 | 122,077,000 | -10,680,000 |
2098 | 110,941,000 | 122,380,000 | -11,439,000 |
2099 | 110,501,000 | 122,664,000 | -12,163,000 |
2100 | 110,028,000 | 122,922,000 | -12,894,000 |
在2023年,全世界大约有1.32亿名婴儿出生,同时有6200万人死亡,也就是说这一年地球上新增了7000万人口(增长率为0.9%)。
但是到了2100年的时候,全球人口将减少近1300万人,大约相当于玻利维亚目前的人口。
当然,上述情况的出现有一个大前提,那就是未来这60年里世界不会有更大的变革,还会和当前世界的发展类似。
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